Property Brief - April 2024

The fourth BetterBond Property Brief of 2024 is out!

This data in this issue suggests a cautiously optimistic view. Even though the prime overdraft rate has remained elevated at 11.75% and the year-on-year decline of 8% in the BetterBond Index of home loan applications continued into the first quarter of 2024, the quarter-on-quarter reading saw a welcome increase of 7.8%. While the increase is marginal, it does hint of the bottoming out of the market in anticipation of a drop in the interest rate at the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in May.

The full list of data points included in this Property Brief, is as follows:

  1. BetterBond index of average monthly home loan applications
  2. Average home purchase price
  3. Regional composition of the average bond value – all buyers and FTBs (12 months to March 2024)
  4. Regional composition of home loans granted – all buyers (12 months to March 2024)
  5. Residential property price index (RPPI) and construction input price index (CIPI)
  6. Percentage change in average home loan prices by region (12 months to 2023 and 2024)
  7. Percentage home loans granted per home price bracket 

In the Economist’s Notes, Dr Roelof Botha explains that the prospects for inflation resuming its downward trend have improved considerably because of the drop in the food and beverage price levels. An analysis of the February CPI data over the past 18 months shows a consistent decline in the food price index. Furthermore, he explained that the relentless increase in the gold price, inversely aligned with the US interest rate, is often associated with domestic currency strength. This will go a long way to lowering inflation and, in the long run, lowering the interest rate.

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